Thursday, October 10, 2013

Quinnipiac poll shows McAuliffe breaking away from Cuccinelli

October 10, 2013 model with less smoothing.
A new poll from Quinnipiac University is out and, along with other polls that came out earlier this week, it shows that McAuliffe is clearing breaking away from Ken Cuccinelli. I have made the following three modifications to Pollster's model in order to produce the chart above:

1) The default percentage range for Pollster is 20% to 55%. I have altered that range to 5% to 55% so that Libertarian Robert Sarvis' numbers are visible.

2) I have excluded the results of three polls performed by Roanoke College. Roanoke College's polls last year were revealed to be wildly inaccurate and skewed, and the two of the three polls they have performed this year are wildly inconsistent with the results of all other polls. Roanoke College simply has nothing useful to contribute, so I have excluded them.

3) I have excluded the results of a poll performed by Zogby/Newsmax (R) for substantially the same reasons that I have excluded Roanoke College.

Takeaway? Unless the Tea Party Republicans in Congress reopen the government and raise the debt limit very, very soon, Ken Cuccinelli won't have the time he needs to recover and close the gap with McAuliffe. Cuccinelli has closely associated himself with the Tea Party movement since its very inception, and there is no way for him to escape its gravitational pull as the Tea Party pulls the Republican Party down to historically low favorability ratings. The November 5, 2013 elections in Virginia may become a referendum on the Tea Party, and if they do it will be a disaster for the Republican Party.

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