|October 22, 2013 model with less smoothing.|
I have made the following three modifications to Pollster's model in order to produce the chart above:
1) The default percentage range for Pollster is 20% to 55%. I have altered that range to 5% to 55% so that Libertarian Robert Sarvis' numbers are visible.
2) I have excluded the results of three polls performed by Roanoke College. Roanoke College's polls last year were revealed to be wildly inaccurate and skewed, and two of the three polls they have performed this year are wildly inconsistent with the results of all other polls. Roanoke College simply has nothing useful to contribute, so I have excluded them.
3) I have excluded the results of a poll performed by Zogby/Newsmax (R) for substantially the same reasons that I have excluded Roanoke College.
Takeaway? The Republican War on Women, the Star Scientific Scandal, and the Tea Party's shutdown of the federal government have created a perfect storm for Ken Cuccinelli. In May of this year, I predicted that E.W. Jackson would drag down the campaigns of Ken Cuccinelli and Mark Obenshain. It is clear to me now that I owe E.W. Jackson an apology--it is clear now that the weak link in the Republican ticket is Ken Cuccinelli, and it is Cuccinelli that is dragging down his running mates.