Tuesday, October 22, 2013

New poll out from Rasmussen in Virginia governor's race

October 22, 2013 model with less smoothing.
A new poll from Rasmussen is out and it shows a disastrous collapse in Ken Cuccinelli's numbers. Keep in mind that Rasmussen is a Republican poll and tends to skew to the right by a point or two--it's a worthwhile poll, but you need to remember to deduct a point or two from the Republican's numbers.  That being said, this poll reflects an unfolding disaster for the campaign of extreme Tea Party Republican Ken Cuccinelli.

I have made the following three modifications to Pollster's model in order to produce the chart above:

1) The default percentage range for Pollster is 20% to 55%. I have altered that range to 5% to 55% so that Libertarian Robert Sarvis' numbers are visible.

2) I have excluded the results of three polls performed by Roanoke College. Roanoke College's polls last year were revealed to be wildly inaccurate and skewed, and two of the three polls they have performed this year are wildly inconsistent with the results of all other polls. Roanoke College simply has nothing useful to contribute, so I have excluded them.

3) I have excluded the results of a poll performed by Zogby/Newsmax (R) for substantially the same reasons that I have excluded Roanoke College.

Takeaway? The Republican War on Women, the Star Scientific Scandal, and the Tea Party's shutdown of the federal government have created a perfect storm for Ken Cuccinelli.  In May of this year, I predicted that E.W. Jackson would drag down the campaigns of Ken Cuccinelli and Mark Obenshain.  It is clear to me now that I owe E.W. Jackson an apology--it is clear now that the weak link in the Republican ticket is Ken Cuccinelli, and it is Cuccinelli that is dragging down his running mates.

1 comment:

EVille Mike said...

Looks great - but don't dismiss whatever tiny probability there may be that Rasmussen is trying to manufacture a little complacency.

GOTV, Dems!