Tuesday, October 08, 2013

New polls out in the Virginia Governor's race

October 8, 2013 projection with moderate smoothing.

October 8, 2013 projection with less smoothing.
Several new polls are out and Pollster has finally updated its model, which means I can update my model, which is really just a modification of Pollster's. I have made the following three modifications:

1) The default percentage range for Pollster is 20% to 55%. I have altered that range to 5% to 55% so that Libertarian Robert Sarvis' numbers are visible.

2) I have excluded the results of three polls performed by Roanoke College. Roanoke College's polls last year were revealed to be wildly inaccurate and skewed, and the two of the three polls they have performed this year are wildly inconsistent with the results of all other polls. Roanoke College simply has nothing useful to contribute, so I have excluded them.

3) I have excluded the results of a poll performed by Zogby/Newsmax (R) for substantially the same reasons that I have excluded Roanoke College.

Takeaway? The last two polls in this projection were performed after the Tea Party Republican shut down of the federal government, and it is having a serious impact on the campaign of Tea Party Republican Ken Cuccinelli.

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