Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Two new polls out: McAuliffe's lead solidifying

September 24, 2013 model with "moderate smoothing"

September 24, 2013 model with "less smoothing"
Pollster at the Huffington Post has just updated their model to account for two new polls in the Virginia Governor's race. I am excited to see that Washington Post/Abt-SRBI and NBC/Marist both included Libertarian Robert Sarvis as a possible choice for voters. Excluding Sarvis simply props up Ken Cuccinelli's numbers and exaggerates the numbers of undecideds.

As with other projections created by Pollster this year I have made the following two modifications:

1) The default percentage range for Pollster is 20% to 55%. I have altered that range to 5% to 55% so that Libertarian Robert Sarvis' numbers are visible.

2) I have excluded the results of two polls performed by Roanoke College. Roanoke College's polls last year were revealed to be wildly inaccurate and skewed, and the two polls they have performed this year are wildly inconsistent with the results of all other polls. Roanoke College simply has nothing useful to contribute, so I have excluded them.

In addition, I am posting two versions of the projection: one with "moderate smoothing" and one with "less smoothing."  The "less smoothing" option displays the data with greater sensitivity to more recent polls.

This week's takeaway from the poll of polls is that support for Terry McAuliffe is firming up, but the race is by no means over. Voter turnout will be absolutely key, which means that if you care about the outcome of this election it is time for you to volunteer to make calls or canvass for your candidate.

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