Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Sarvis creating real problems for Cuccinelli

Robert Sarvis is steadily eating away at Ken Cuccinelli's base, particularly the Libertarian wing of the Republican Party of Virginia. Look at the chart of polls above. Terry McAuliffe's number show a steady rise as he continues to gather in Democrats, independents, and even a few moderate Republicans. Then look at Ken Cuccinelli's sliding numbers and Robert Sarvis' rise towards double digits. Cuccinelli's decline almost exactly corresponds to Sarvis' gains, suggesting that Sarvis is pulling almost exclusively from Cuccinelli's support.

With the Republican Party of Virginia's ticket split three ways--Cuccinelli is ignoring Jackson, Obenshain is avoiding Cuccinelli, and Jackson has begun to scorn both Cuccinelli and Obenshain--Virginia Republicans are becoming frustrated by the mess created by Ken Cuccinelli's Tea Party convention. At this point it doesn't seem possible that the Republicans will be able to reunite and conduct a coherent campaign. Democrats could heighten this perception if they were to unite on a few barnstorming joint campaign trips with McAuliffe, Northam, and Herring campaigning together, showing unity and the ability to work together.

I suspect that there could come a point in the campaign when large numbers of Libertarian-leaning Republicans will realize that Cuccinelli can't win and they will decide at that point to throw their support to Sarvis as a symbolic protest vote against the damage Cuccinelli's Tea Party convention did to the Republican brand. All of this happened because Ken Cuccinelli was afraid to face Bill Bolling in an open and fair primary election.

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