Thursday, September 26, 2013

New poll out from Rasmussen in Virginia governor's race

September 26, 2013 model with "moderate smoothing"

September 26, 2013 model with "less smoothing"

Republican pollster Rasmussen is out with a new poll in the Virginia governor's race, which means a new model from Pollster at the Huffington Post. As with other projections created by Pollster this year I have made the following two modifications:

1) The default percentage range for Pollster is 20% to 55%. I have altered that range to 5% to 55% so that Libertarian Robert Sarvis' numbers are visible.

2) I have excluded the results of two polls performed by Roanoke College. Roanoke College's polls last year were revealed to be wildly inaccurate and skewed, and the two polls they have performed this year are wildly inconsistent with the results of all other polls. Roanoke College simply has nothing useful to contribute, so I have excluded them.

In addition, I am posting two versions of the projection: one with "moderate smoothing" and one with "less smoothing."  The "less smoothing" option displays the data with greater sensitivity to more recent polls.

Takeaways? No real movement here--McAuliffe maintains a substantial, though not conclusive, lead.  According to these polls, Cuccinelli is down, but not out.  It should be noted that this poll was conducted on September 23rd, and so it does not reflect the impact--if any--of last night's debate between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli. It will be interesting to see if the debate changed any minds or pulled any undecideds off the fence one way or the other.

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