Monday, July 12, 2010

The Great Republican Flameout of 2010

NBC political correspondents Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg listed four big reasons why the Republican Party is unlikely to win back control of the House of Representatives this year:
1) Unlike in ’94, the Republican Party has a fav/unfav score that's no better (and sometimes event worse) than the Dem Party’s;

2) Unlike in ’94, the GOP isn’t necessarily running on new ideas or even with many new faces;

3) the National Republican Congressional Committee has a HUGE financial disadvantage compared with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the RNC’s political/fundraising troubles won’t be able to make up the difference; and

4) winning 39 seats is a tall order. After all, when Democrats won back the House in 2006 -- during the height of violence in Iraq and after Hurricane Katrina -- they picked up 30 House seats. The GOP will need almost 10 more than that.
I would add an additional factor to this list:
5) The backfiring enthusiasm factor. The Republicans are very fired up this year due to the Tea Party, but this could backfire on them. When the Tea Party gets excited it says and does stupid things that reflect poorly on the GOP as a whole. The more excited the Tea Party gets, the more they will drive independents away from the Republican Party. The harder Tea Party Republicans work, the worse off the GOP will be.
It is not 1994. The country is not in the same place it was in 1994. The Republican Party is not what it was in 1994. I doubt the Republicans can pull off what they're dreaming of this year.

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