Sometimes a picture is worth a lot more than a thousand words. Sometimes a pick speaks volumes.
If you look at the chart above from Pollster.com, you will see that, until quite recently, both Barack Obama and John McCain were both enjoying a surge in support. This "double bounce" isn't unusual: Labor Day weekend is when people start paying attention and choosing sides. It's also not surprising that Barack Obama's upward bounce was a bit steeper than McCain's: Obama was enjoying his post-convention bounce after a strong acceptance speech. McCain had every right to look forward to a similar shot in the arm once his convention was over.
But then the Palin choice fell apart. McCain made the most important decision of his campaign without bothering to completely vet Sarah Palin. She has been caught in several lies. She's under an ethics investigation . . . and there's other stuff too.
The Palin choice was a poor one, it reflects poorly on John McCain's judgment, and voters are punishing him for it.
So far this week has been a disaster for McCain. The first part of the Republican National Convention was blown by McCain's attempt to milk Hurricane Gustav. Many delegates thought the convention would be canceled and didn't bother to show up. Others, like Virginia's own Thelma Drake have folded tents and gone home. Will Republicans be able to fill the seats at their convention?
This means that everything hinges on John McCain's acceptance speech, and we all know just how great a speechmaker John McCain is.
Be sure to visit Pollster.com for great information on polling and electoral vote projections.