Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Obama stalemates Clinton: Update - Obama won more delegates last night

Update: As noted before, the proportional systems used to allocate delegates by the Democratic Party are quite complicated. Further complicating things, some states are proportional statewide, while others are proportional by district. According to TIME Magazine, Obama narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton last night, picking up 845 delegates to Clinton's 836.

This is more or less consistent with what I predicted, though it deals another shocking blow to Ben Tribbett's claims of electoral omniscience. Once more, Ben has shown that he can't count, failing to realize that 845 delegates is in fact a larger number than 836 delegates. This mathematical concept is typically illustrated by the following symbols:

845 > 836

This concludes Ben Tribbett's schooling for the day.

Original Post: As predicted by many pundits, yesterday's Super Tuesday was extremely close in terms of delegates. The final results are still not in due to the complicated system of proportional allocation of delegates. It appears that Clinton won several large states by moderate majorities, while Obama won several smaller states by blowout margins, allowing him to claim a larger proportional share of their delegates. It will likely be later today before the final delegate counts are ready.

Clinton seems to have benefited especially in California from early voting before Obama's momentum caught up to voters. Late polls showed Obama overtaking Clinton, but it was too late as fully a third of all ballots cast had already been cast early.

CNN estimates that Clinton now leads Obama, 825 to 732 [Note: These numbers are outdated, see above] in total elected delegates and super delegates. This is a long way from the commanding lead that many Clinton supporters predicted. Ben Tribbett had, in an earlier burst of irrational exuberance, predicted that Clinton would top 1,000 delegates after sweeping Super Tuesday.

Now the campaigns head into four months of tough campaigning. Obama was surging going into Super Tuesday. Clinton will try to claim a victory from yesterday's slender margin, but if Obama can maintain his surge, then the advantage should pass to him. Next week is the so-called "Beltway Primary," with the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia. Hispanics have been a source of strength for Clinton, but their numbers are few in DC, Maryland, and Virginia. Obama's challenge is to rack up a series of blowout victories in Southern and Mid-Atlantic states and continue to build his momentum.

On the Republican side, John McCain won big and is now the presumptive nominee.


Doug in Mount Vernon said...

That's hilarious JC!

Ben has never been very good at accepting unwelcome realities...

Kevin said...

"Hispanics have been a source of strength for Clinton, but their numbers are few in DC, Maryland, and Virginia."

Not according to BVBL, if you read his blog, Hispanics can't be stopped.

The Richmond Democrat said...

Well, I think the Hispanics that Greg L. loses so much sleep over aren't registered to vote.

Bubby said...

Ben uses imaginary numbers. I think they are very important but don't remember why, since I slept through that part of math class, and am a dues paying member of the Reality-Based Community. Thanks for the clarification!